The
first, and perhaps least likely, is an actual nuclear strike against an obvious
military target on Ukrainian soil. It would be somewhere relatively unpopulated
in an effort to minimize the spread of radiation, an air burst over an air base, or a concentration of troops.
Not
only would this be relatively ineffectual given the dispersed nature of
Ukrainian forces, but it could likely invite an immediate and significant
reprisal attack directly by the United States and NATO forces.
The
dangers of escalation are all too grim and obvious.
The
second scenario would be a demonstration over the Black Sea in international
waters. While a massive pollutant and still risky, it would not be the obvious
trigger for a NATO response and potential escalation could still be stopped at
that level.
The
third, and perhaps most likely use of any Russian nuclear weapon would be to
conduct a test on Russian soil, on one of the old Soviet nuclear test sites in
the north, like Novaya Zemlya. Though breaking the Test Ban Treaty on
atmospheric testing, it would be unlikely to invite a military response from
NATO.
Such
a test would remind the world that Russia has other means at its disposal in
the form of terrifying weapons, that its humiliation will only go so far, and
it is resolved to use them if Russia is not allowed to extricate itself from
this conflict with something that does not look like total defeat – a 50kt
bargaining chip, with megatonnes in reserve.
Whichever
scenario is played out, the detonation of a nuclear weapon would likely trigger
panic around the world followed by civil disorder as cities empty. There would
also be chaos on global stock markets as currencies and stocks plunge in value.
What is the
likelihood that such a weapon would be used?
While
still low, for the first time in decades the probability that nuclear weapons
could be used is not zero.
No
one has anything to gain from the nuclear conflagration.
But
an embattled Putin may feel he is being forced to make a desperate gamble.
His high-risk use of one of the few tools left available to him could help stop a war, his war, from ending in total defeat for Russia, allowing its forces to leave the battlefield beaten but not completely broken.
This article was originally published on aljazeera.com
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